Mortgage Industry News

Early Gains. Flat Afternoon. MBS Underperform Friday ended up offering a boring conclusion to a week that had at least some measure of excitement on Wednesday. Bonds started a hair stronger, lost ground modestly and then rallied to the day's best levels by noon. From there, 10yr yields went perfectly sideways in an ultra narrow range. MBS managed to hang on to just barely positive levels but gave up about an eighth of a point during the time Treasuries were holding steady. Technically, this is underperformance in a vacuum, but in the bigger picture, MBS have been doing just fine in relative terms. As a reminder, next week is 3.5 days thanks to Independence Day observance, and the jobs report will be on Thursday morning.  Market Movement Recap 09:04 AM Stronger overnight, but bouncing back a bit now. 10yr up 0.3bps and MBS unchanged. 12:04 PM Near strongest levels. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 1.8bps at 4.373 04:29 PM Off strongest levels in MBS, now up only 2 ticks (.06). 10yr down 1.9bps at 4.372

Mortgage rates officially hit their lowest level in more than a month yesterday with MND's 30yr fixed index falling to 6.53% from 6.55% on Wednesday. Today was completely unchanged at 6.53%, thus maintaining the lowest level since May 14th, 2026.  There weren't any dramatic developments behind the scenes in term of economic data or news headlines (not that we'd expect them when rates hold perfectly flat). This week's broader improvement can be attributed to buying demand in the bond market owing to large investors rebalancing their stock/bond portfolios before the end of the quarter. As the quarter officially ends early next week, new volatility could emerge. It could be further compounded by the more active slate of economic data culminating in Thursday's big jobs report--the biggest economic report on any given month. NOTE: the jobs report would normally be out on a Friday, but next Friday is the holiday observance for the 4th of July. 

New home sales weakened further in May, extending the pullback seen over the past several months as elevated mortgage rates and affordability pressures continued to weigh on buyer demand. According to the latest Census Bureau and HUD data, sales of new single-family homes fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 580,000 , down 7.3% from April and 6.8% from a year earlier. Inventory continued to build, with the number of new homes for sale rising to 496,000 , up 2.3% from April, though still 1.4% below May 2025 levels. At the current sales pace, that left months' supply at 10.3 months , up from 9.3 months in April and 9.7 months one year ago. Home prices moved higher in May. The median sales price increased to $424,900 , up 2.0% from April and essentially unchanged from a year earlier. Meanwhile, the average sales price rose sharply to $540,600 , a 7.8% monthly increase and 5.0% above May 2025 levels. While the chart above is potentially alarming at first glance, it's always worth remembering 2 things: 1. New Home Sales data is notoriously choppy month to month, and prone to sometimes significant revisions. 2. Existing Home Sales run at an annual pace over 4 million (compared to New Home Sales at just under 600k), and they've been trending modestly higher in the past few months. 

Mortgage applications posted a modest increase last week, though overall activity remained subdued by historical standards as borrowing costs held relatively steady. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 1.0% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending June 19. Refinance activity provided most of the support for the weekly gain. The Refinance Index increased 3% from the previous week and was 17% higher than the same period one year ago. Purchase demand slipped slightly but continued to hold above year-ago levels. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1% from the prior week, while remaining 3% higher than the same week in 2025. “Mortgage rates changed little over the course of last week, despite the more hawkish tone from the FOMC at its June meeting,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and chief economist. “Purchase application volume edged slightly lower, while refinance activity posted modest gains. Despite the elevated mortgage rates and overall economic uncertainty, mortgage application volume is running 8 percent above year-ago levels.” Refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 41.5% from 40.3%, while the ARM share declined to 8.2% from 8.5%. Government-backed application shares were mixed. FHA share increased to 17.9% from 17.5%, while VA share decreased to 12.3% from 12.9%. USDA share rose to 0.5% from 0.4%.

Residential construction activity cooled in May, as housing starts and completions both moved lower while building permits edged down only slightly. Last week's Census Bureau data suggests builders are still navigating uneven demand and affordability pressures, with a sharper pullback in starts than in permits. Privately owned housing starts fell 15.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.177 million , down from April’s revised 1.392 million pace. Starts were also 8.7% below their May 2025 level. Single-family starts slipped 1.9% to 882k, while starts for units in buildings with five units or more dropped to 284k. While that represents the lowest level of housing starts since 2020, building permits changed very little. Total building permits fell 0.7% to an annual rate of 1.413 million , just 0.2% below the year-ago pace. Single-family permits edged 0.6% higher to 886k, while multifamily authorizations came in at 474k. Another silver lining for single-family construction is that the drop in housing starts was primarily a factor of one of the largest single month drops in multifamily housing starts... ever. This is such an aberrant spike in the data that we'd hesitate to read too much into it unless the numbers remain similarly low in coming months (especially given 2+ years of slow, steady upward movement).