Mortgage Industry News

Stocks Got Rocked. Bonds Picked Up Some Slack Chipmakers and other tech names got absolutely rocked today starting at the 9:30am NYSE open. Hedge funds dumped semiconductors like a bad habit early and often (Sandisk down 20% anyone?!), and with tech comprising so much of the 2026 growth story, the rest of the stock market followed suit. Bonds were a hair weaker at 9:30am, but that rapidly changed due to the magnitude of the equity market exodus. Still, 10yr yields falling a mere 5-6bps is pretty underwhelming considering stocks had their worst day in over a year and hit their worst levels since April (NASDAQ specifically). Friday's jobs report is still a contender for volatility although any major swings in stocks should set the tone. Econ Data / Events Jobless Claims 189k vs 196k f'cast, 195k prev

Yesterday, it was a drop below 7.25%. Today, the 7.20% floor was broken. Mortgage rates have been on a tear over the past month and are now back to 7.17% for the average lender. If there's one thing that deserves most of the credit for this bull run, it's the extreme bearishness in tech stocks. The NASDAQ is now down roughly 14% from the October highs and the drop perfectly coincides with the drop in bond yields and interest rates.  The road ahead is fairly simple: if tech continues causing panic in stocks, interest rates can continue to benefit. The caveat is that the benefit to rates has been getting smaller and smaller relative to the drama in stocks. This would also suggest that any miraculous bounce in stocks would likely prompt a similar correction in rates.  Economic data still matters as well. On that note, tomorrow brings the monthly jobs report, which should always be respected as a potential source of volatility. 

Why am I a sucker for stories like, “What Do the Twins in the Shining Look Like Now?”? Is the American public a sucker for not being more concerned that no politician seems concerned about the burgeoning deficit? Will there be any “fiscal conservatives” in Congress, or the White House? Here in Dallas, one of the topics, of course, is the election. Yesterday stocks rallied and rates both dropped, reminding us that they don’t have a consistent inverse relationship, mostly on removing the uncertainty about the election. Where do we go with reducing regulatory burdens for credit-worthy borrowers, a mandate for the CFPB, FHA/VA, or banking regulators? What might happen to TRID, RESPA, Truth in Lending, or ATR? Will ink signature requirements go away? Perhaps. What about credit and appraisal policies? Will we see an expanded role for Federal Home Loan Banks? Lots of questions for a Thursday; see below for the MBA’s communication plan. (Today’s podcast can be found here. This week’s ‘casts are presented by FirstClose, which helps financial institutions grow a successful home equity business with innovative solutions that minimize application drop-off, automate time-consuming processes, and reduce time to close from weeks to days. Today’s has an interview with True Footage’s Jeremy Potter on how technology and structured property data are transforming home appraisals by streamlining data collection, improving valuation accuracy and lender risk assessment, and allowing licensed appraisers to focus more on expert analysis and complex properties.)

Bonds are starting the day a few bps weaker. 10yr yields are just over 4.90% and considering they were almost 50bps higher a month ago, you're free to go about your business today without scrutinizing this morning's baby bump. It could be purely incidental. But for those who demand scapegoats, the easiest suspect to blame would be corporate debt issuance from Apple, which coincided with bonds breaking away from their overnight stock market correlation. In the bigger picture, we could consider investors might wonder if the NASDAQ just had another summer-sized correction and might now find support. Lastly, we might consider the bond market correction has similarly covered enough ground as to merit a bit of cooling.  All of that is speculative, of course. If stocks resume tanking or if the econ data gets bad, the good times could easily resume. But if stocks move back toward all-time highs and the data improves, it would make sense for the recent bull run in bonds to find resistance here.

Elections, Oil, and Neocloud Stocks, Oh My! There are 3 publicly traded neocloud stocks that are big enough to care about. All 3 hit new long term lows today (ranging from 6 months to over a year).  All 3 continue to track very well with the recent bond market rally. This is simplest way to approach today's gains. The more you wander from that path, the more complex and circular the logic becomes. Oil prices have plummeted almost $20since last Friday. Seems like it should matter, and a few traders might agree. Then there's the election, which caused a surge in the broader stock market. We'd be careful giving it credit for bond market gains considering yields jumped from 4.90% to almost 4.95% when the senate results were called by news agencies. The easiest way to attempt to connect those dots would be via "AI company headwind implications." Such headwinds could imply slower corporate bond issuance or even a slower pace of economic growth. Bottom line: we have no objection to the lowest rates in more than a month, but the rally still looks most dependent on neocloud jitters.  Econ Data / Events ADP jobs (Oct) 86K vs 69K f'cast, 90K prev Trade Gap (Sep) -105.00B vs $-108B f'cast, $-105.6B prev S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct) 55.9 vs 57.6 f'cast, 58.4 prev S&P Global Services PMI (Oct) 56.1 vs 57.9 f'cast, 58.8 prev ISM Biz Activity (Oct) 53.8 vs -- f'cast, 56.5 prev ISM N-Mfg PMI (Oct) 54.5 vs 54.8 f'cast, 54.9 prev ISM Services Employment (Oct) 51.4 vs -- f'cast, 50.1 prev ISM Services New Orders (Oct) 55.9 vs -- f'cast, 59.8 prev ISM Services Prices (Oct) 73.0 vs -- f'cast, 74.0 prev