Mortgage Industry News

Light Volatility and Modest Gains Ahead of CPI Bonds were modestly stronger in the overnight session in a move that is easiest to attribute to ongoing supportive buying in response to recently higher yields in the long end of the market. Fed Funds Futures were also in play as implied Fed Funds tracked fairly well with 10yr yields in terms of movement. Oil prices did little to explain the AM gains, but correlated well with an insignificant pull-back between 8:30-10:00am ET. Afternoon comments from Williams (who only sees the need for 1 more rate hike and then no hikes in 2027) helped the short end of the yield curve, but here too, all of the intraday volatility was very light in the bigger picture. Case in point, this was one of the first days in weeks without any lender reprices reported through 3pm ET.  Econ Data / Events Existing Home Sales 3.99m vs 3.95m f'cast, 3.93m prev

It was an uneventfully good day for mortgage rates. Unlike the average day over the past several weeks, there was minimal intraday volatility in the underlying bond market. This allowed the average lender to issue rates once this morning and avoid intraday rate changes.  Fortunately, the overnight market movement was in our favor today as traders continued finding value in recently higher bond yields.  Rates are based on the bond market where higher yields increasingly create demand among investors. In 2023, when the 10yr Treasury yield hit 5%, we saw a solid show of support from buyers. In 2026, we've been waiting to see a similar show of support as yields crested 5.3%. Last week brought the first potential evidence of such support.  This doesn't mean rates are out of the woods, however. Tomorrow brings important inflation data and inflation is a key consideration for bond investors. If inflation comes in higher than expected, yields/rates could move back up toward recent highs. But if it's lower than expected, it could reinforce the supportive undertones seen over the past several trading days and help the downward momentum in rates continue. 

If you want privacy, you may not want to buy a new car: Many new cards share your data with third-party companies via technology. Here at the MBA National, tech is not only a popular topic, but, thanks to AddyAI, there is an Agentic registered “attendee” named Adele. The robot’s job is roaming the halls. Are you doing your “dream” job? They vary by country, by the way, and here’s a map. Some jobs are “unsung,” and one of the topics at the MMLA event in Michigan, the MBAC event in South Carolina, and here at “The National” in Chicago is how lenders need to focus on some of these roles as they could mean the difference between success and failure. For example, the biggest inefficiency in mortgage underwriting is the manual coordination required to resolve exceptions, clarify documents, and move information between borrowers, brokers, and underwriters. Advances in document intelligence and large language models can now address both sides of that problem, enabling AI to identify issues upfront, generate explanations in real time, validate documents and flag fraud, and even match borrowers with alternative loan products without changing existing credit standards. This should create an incremental shift toward AI-assisted decisioning that earns trust while materially compressing cycle times and reducing labor. (Today’s podcast can be found here. This week’s ‘casts are presented by nCino, the platform for agentic AI in mortgage lending. nCino is helping mortgage lenders deliver a faster, simpler path to homeownership. Today’s has an interview with nCino’s Casey Williams on how lenders can improve affordability by expanding access and removing process friction through faster, more responsive technology that helps borrowers from first contact through closing and beyond.)

Tuesday morning joins a fairly long list of trading days where overnight bond market movement cannot be cleanly connected to news headlines or econ data. With yields having recently pushed up to multi-decade highs, and Fed policy expectations constantly shifting, this will be an ongoing phenomenon. Over the past several sessions, there's definitely been some organic buying in longer-term bonds (i.e. investors concluding 10yr yields around 5.3% represent a good entry point). The overnight rally followed a shift in Fed rate expectations. Oil prices correlated but the timing was off when it comes to the earlier rally. Over the last 2 hours, however, a spike in oil prices is indeed leading a bounce back toward higher yields. 

Another Nice Round Trip For Bonds--Especially MBS Nothing new or interesting happened today in terms of underlying events, news, or data. But the price action itself was a different story. While the moves weren't extreme, it was nonetheless notable that bonds lost ground in a very intentional way this morning only to reverse course and make it back to positive territory by the close. Yields are still broadly sideways at long-term highs, but we now have a second straight day having closed near the week's best levels. MBS outperformed Treasuries a bit, and officially turned green by the afternoon even as 10yr yields were a hair higher. It's all somewhat promising, but not conclusive evidence of "more to come." The 3-day weekend may be adding some distortion. Either way next week's data may play a big role in making this week look like a false start or sneak preview.   Market Movement Recap 12:47 PM Weaker morning, but bouncing back since 11am. MBS now down only 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up only 1.4bps at 5.244