Surprisingly Big Sell Off Relative to The Inspiration Bonds ended up selling off somewhat sharply today with the bulk of the blame apparently reserved for the UK/US trade deal. In fact, the pace of the selling wasn't something we would have predicted when the details emerged this morning. This raises questions about what other motivations could be in play.  Certainly, the "precedent thesis" is relevant (i.e. what does today's deal imply about how other trade deals may look?). The simplest way to approach it would be to conclude that tariffs will go up enough to increase inflation, but not so much as to hinder growth--both bad for bonds and for the Fed's rate cut prospects. Econ Data / Events Jobless Claims 228k vs 230k f'cast, 241k prev Unit Labor Costs 5.7 vs 5.1 f'cast, 2.2 prev Market Movement Recap 09:16 AM Slightly stronger after AM data, but still weaker on the day.  MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 1.3bps at 4.283 10:40 AM weakest levels of the AM.  MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 4.6bps at 4.316 02:46 PM sharply weaker after auction with MBS down 3/8ths and 10yr up 10bps at 4.37

Mortgage rates moved back up to the higher levels seen earlier this week after the official announcement of a trade deal between the U.S. and the U.K. Most lenders actually began the day fairly close to yesterday's latest levels, but were ultimately forced to raise rates in response to weakness in the bond market.   The rationale for this market reaction can be debated. Some market watchers conclude that a trade deal is simply "good for stocks and bad for bonds" because it's economically bullish. While that sentiment CAN account for some of the movement, it's not the whole story. Bonds (which dictate rates) have specific concerns regarding inflation, foreign demand, and issuance needs. These are high level topics that are beyond the scope of a daily mortgage rate recap, but suffice it to say "rates have a lot on their minds" when it comes to how trade policy shakes out.  Unfortunately, it's sort of a no win situation in the short term.  The only exception would have been a full exemption from tariffs. In the bigger picture, today's mortgage rate increase is unremarkable--sort of average--and it leaves the rate index well below the early April highs, despite being well above the range seen during the month of March.

“Why did the homeowner take so long in remodeling his home? He had trouble with da siding.” There are LOs, or correspondent investors, who have spent months or years building up their renovation referral book of business. I am sure that they saw this coming with the Trump tariff policies: A quarter of large renovation projects could be scrapped or considerably scaled back because tariffs make them cost-prohibitive, according to new research from Zonda. Meanwhile, Robbie Chrisman reports that Day #1 of the California MBA's Mortgage Innovators Conference in Huntington Beach delivered a deep dive into how private equity is shaping the future of the mortgage industry, with leaders from Redwood Trust, Andromeda, and FundingShield highlighting capital’s growing role in innovation, risk management, and consumer experience. The afternoon pivoted to the power and pitfalls of AI, as panels and tech demos explored cutting-edge tools transforming lending operations, from compliance automation to borrower engagement. Sessions emphasized the urgent need for strategic implementation, regulatory alignment, and customer-focused tech to stay competitive in a rapidly evolving market, setting the tone for a high-impact, tech-forward year ahead. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by HomeEQ, the fully digital HELOC from Arc Home, which empowers brokers to quickly provide borrowers with easy access to their home equity. Brokers can benefit from competitive compensation, along with comprehensive training and a complete marketing plan designed to help them re-engage former clients and grow their business. Hear an interview with Aidium’s Spencer Dusebout on how AI is transforming the mortgage industry, from redefining lead scoring and boosting CRM adoption to supporting, not replacing, loan officers, with a spotlight on the launch of innovative “Agents” designed to streamline workflows and enhance borrower engagement.)

Bonds mostly lost ground in the overnight session, and then lost just a bit more ground after the 8:30am econ data.  This consisted of Jobless Claims coming in slightly lower than forecast, and Labor Costs rising to 5.7% for Q1 vs 2.0% in Q4. Of the two, the latter likely accounted for the initial selling impulse, but it was short-lived. Bonds rallied with 10yr yields dropping almost 4bps, and have since bounced back to the weakest levels of the morning (but this is too far removed from the AM data to blame the AM data). The only other relevant scheduled even is the 30yr bond auction at 1pm ET. Apart from that, trade related headlines may cause some ebbs and flows with the US/UK deal being announced.

Just as Underwhelming as Expected No sense in trying to manufacture excitement out of something boring. Even before Fed speakers went into the customary blackout period 12 days ago, it was already abundantly clear that they were all on the same page--a page of uncertainty in an uncertain chapter of an uncertain book.  Nothing had changed in the past 12 days that would allow the Fed or Powell to be any less uncertain about which of the two competing forces on rates would win out in the coming weeks/months.  As such, there was nothing Powell could do but reiterate that fact 17 times for the 17 different versions of the same question. It's no surprise bonds are heading out the door precisely in line with pre-Fed levels. Market Movement Recap 09:15 AM Sideways to slightly weaker overnight with a modest bounce in early trading.  MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up less than 1bp at 4.305 02:05 PM 10yr yields are down 3.0bps on the day at 4.268 and MB are up 6 ticks (.19). 03:23 PM Some back and forth during press conference, but largely at pre-Fed levels.  MBS up just over an eighth and 10yr down 2bps at 4.278